Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
